This is the first in an occasional series of stories about issues facing our readers during the heating season.

WESTERLY — The Farmer’s Almanac is predicting lots of snow and below normal temperatures. The federal Energy Information Administration foresees the cost to heat a home as high as $450 more than a year ago.

So it’s never too soon to start thinking about how you plan to stay warm this winter.

The Northeast, says the EIA, where a third of homes use oil, will be hardest hit, with an expected average heating bill of $2,388 for October to March – 23 percent more than last winter.

In addition to stocking up on sweaters, socks, scarves and slippers, what else can homeowners do?

A number of things, say local oil company owners, who have been making suggestions to customers for months now – including budgeting, auditing and buttoning up. The number one suggestion, they all agree, is to top off your oil tank today.

Because heating oil has dipped down nearly 25 percent, to $3.50 a gallon – the lowest price since last March, according to the EIA – it only makes sense to take advantage of falling prices and fill up on heating oil.

And although the lower price reflects the brighter side of a slowing economy, it’s a figure that can fluctuate as wildly as the March wind, so the low price is certainly not guaranteed. It could shoot back up tomorrow.

“Everybody knows that prices can go through the roof,” said Judy Tefft, of J.C. Tefft Fuel, Inc., which serves approximately 5,000 to 6,000 South County customers. “Nobody knows from one minute to the next what the price will be.”

“We’re telling people to fill up now and grab it while they can,” she added, “and if they have a few extra bucks, to put it towards their accounts.”

Tefft, who is predicting a “scary year” when it comes to customers being able to afford heat, says she is concerned for the most vulnerable populations this winter – the elderly on fixed incomes and children.

“We all do what we have to do to keep warm,” Tefft said, “we just want people to be safe.”

Jamie Lohr, co-owner with husband Randy of Westerly-based Guardian Fuel & Energy Systems, Inc., said that the volatility in the oil prices has made for one “really weird year.”

“The buzz words in our office are conservation, budget programs, and renewable blends,” she said. “Everyone can do something to use less fuel, and using less fuel means they’ll spend less money.”

After all, she added, “The cheapest gallon of oil is the one you don’t use.”

As far as conservation, the Lohrs recommend having a professional check out your house with an eye towards energy loss.

“We call it a comprehensive energy audit,” said Lohr, who will soon be certified as an official energy auditor by the state of Connecticut. “We’ll look at possible drafts from windows, your insulation, your chimney, and anywhere else you might be losing heat or electricity.”

After conservation, the Lohrs recommend getting on a budget plan with your oil company, and consider using renewable blends. Most companies offer budgeting for customers, when the annual fuel amount spent is averaged and divided among 12 payments.

“Budget plans are really helpful to people,” said Lohr, who offers a plan called “Price Guard” that sets a maximum price per gallon – but allows customers to get a lower price if the market price goes back down.

It’s a Guardian has offered since opening in 1993, she said, adding that there has been increased interest in the Price Guard program, “most likely because of the dramatic drops in market prices since July.”

“Budget plans work well because there are smaller bills and predictable payments,” Lohr said. “That’s really helpful to people.”

“When you think of a 250-gallon delivery costing about $500 dollars,” she added, “and if the price of oil goes up 20 cents, then the total cost of that delivery goes up by 30 bucks. That’s a lot of money.”

At holiday time and during colder weather, she pointed out, that’s even hard to come up with. But, she said, “if you have a good relationship with a reputable dealer, you can break up a huge expense into smaller more manageable payments.”

Brenda Williams, spokesperson for A&B Oil, said that the Westerly-based company offers a “Price Cap Program.”

“We cap the price at $3.99 per gallon,” she said, “if it’s lower, then they pay the lower amount; if it’s higher, then they still pay the $3.99. Quite a few people have signed up for it. They just need to sign an agreement with us.”

The price of oil, noted Williams, tends to dip down before an election, then go back up once the election is over.

At A&B, she said, they’re suggesting that customers consider cleaning their chimneys, having their boilers and furnaces cleaned or upgraded, and looking into programmable thermostats.

“There are some people with furnaces that are 40 and 50 years old,” she said. “They are very inefficient.”

Gus Woodmansee, who operates Woodmansee Oil Company in Hope Valley, a company founded by his parents in 1924, is telling customers to “cut back as far as you can.”

“Use storm windows, get a new and more efficient boiler and furnace if you need them, and turn down the thermostat if you’re going to be out of the house for eight hours or more,” he recommended.

Don’t bother turning down the thermostat if you’re only going to be out for a few hours, Woodmansee said, as it may cost more to get the heat back up again. His company offers a senior citizen discount to customers who qualify.

“We all have good reason to be concerned,” Lohr said about the expected cold temperatures. “We are worried about our customers and their ability to pay their bills.”

Lohr, Tefft, and others said that when they notice customers struggling, they suggest local and state agencies that provide assistance. Often, they said, people are unaware that help is available, and applauded the local WARM shelter’s “A Dollar Makes A Difference” campaign that asks everyone in the community to donate a dollar a week to help the needy keep warm.

“I tell people ‘Apply for the programs,’” said Tefft. “It’s better than freezing to death.”

Woodmansee, who has watched oil prices fluctuate enormously over the past 50 years, said that in addition to hoping oil prices won’t rise to high, he’s telling folks, “Just be careful.”

nbfusaro@thewesterlysun.com